Pts System : 1pt = €/£ 10
"Let the Games Begin"...
Supreme Novices Hurdle 13.30:Probably my favourite race at Cheltenham, as its the first race! - and this years renewal has to be considered the most open for a long time. Every horse is equally as easy to rule in and to rule out on form one way or another, but a horse who looks both the type and has the form is Steps to Freedom for the irrepressible Jessica Harrington.
Darlan, Tetlami and a lot of horses will have an abundance of fans - but my selection has one key thing going for him, genuine Cheltenham form after his novice win in November. As well as this his win in the Aintree bumper last year was a strong performance and I just feel his form and strength in stamina will hold him in good stead up the hill.
The Harrington stable is going from strength to strength and Robbie Power will take the ride. Odds of 6/1 seem generous.
Race 2 Racing Post Arkle Chase 14.00
The
Arkle along with the Ryanair - in my opinion are the best 2 races
available at Cheltenham 2012.Everyone this year seems to regard Sprinter Sacre as a good thing and despite his brilliant profile and flawless displays thus far I do not feel he is a value bet and am taking him on.
Every single time Sprinter Sacre has come off the bridle in his life he has found nothing - firstly at last years festival and previously when finding Frascati Park too good.
It could easily be said that maybe he wont have to come off the bridle and if he doesn't I will be the first to pronounce him a star - but I just feel coming up the hill he may flounder just like last year! Breathing operations seem to be done on every horse so it remains to be seen how much that will have improved him from last year.
So if he does indeed Flounder who will pick up the pieces?
Al Ferof is also not one to take lightly as he has actually not done much wrong.
JLT Specialty Handicap Chase 14.40
2012-03-13 14:40
This
is a tremendous spectacle of a race - always packed full of falls,
unseated riders and a tight finish. Nearly all of these are as easy to
rule in as they are to rule out, but a horse who has the right weight
and good form is Tullamore DewQuantitative easing has to be respected but may be high enough in the weights as is Hold on Julio - especially as nobody has won this race in the last 15 year from over 11st 1 lb. This is why Tullamore Dew may just be the answer. He ran a corker last time out to finish a head down in second at Ascot, and with the nice weight he has been allotted it would not be a surprise to see a big run.
Another big reason is his form around Cheltenham - finishing a brilliant second and third here over the last two years, Cheltenham form is so important in the thick of things!
It would be a fairytale with the passing of Nick Gifford's Father lately for him to win. Liam Treadwell takes the ride which is a massive positive as I believe he is tremendously underrated.
It is a punter friendly race and dont be afraid to follow a name - as most of these have a chance I just think tullamore Dew is weighted to win this.
Odds Of 12/1 are tempting.
Champion Hurdle 2m 15.20
2012-03-13 15:20
The
champion hurdle is always a top race and many greats have passed
through this wonderful affair such as Istabraq and Hardy Eustace and like
Hardy Eustace it seems inevitable that Hurricane fly will follow suit - and win back to back Champion Hurdles.His last run was just devastating - his cruising speed and his turn of foot to beat a decent field home well and just in reality none of these are in the same Time Zone as him, as Paddy Mullins said " I will walk naked through Galway if he is beaten".
Only Hurricane Fly can make odds of 10/11 look Generous.
Where else is their Value?
Binocular
is a monkey and won a poor Champion Hurdle, Zarkander although talented
is not up to this level in my opinion, this is why the other good bet
to take from this is Oscars Well at 5/1 to win in the betting Without Hurricane Fly (to finish 2nd).He has not had a race to suit this year as he detests heavy ground and did not appreciate the slow pace last time. Overturn will ensure a fast gallop and ground will suit. His only previous run was when he had that awful mistake at the last when he was absolutely cantering, so the fast pace will suit and he will be the only danger to Hurricane Fly turning in.
Verdict: 5 pts win Hurricane Fly Paddy Power and 2 pts Oscars Well W/O Hurricane Fly
Glenfarclas X Country Handicap Chase
3pts win Sizing Austrailia 16.00 Cheltenham 9/2 Paddy Power
OLBG David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle 16.40
5pts win Quevega 16.40 Cheltenham 1/2 Paddy Power
Investments Novices' H'cap Chase 17.15
Hopefully
This Race will turn out to be the lucky last, and again its a great
looking race as all the way through the racecards the horses seem to be
of an even quality.Bless the Wings and the other Market Principles deserve to be where they are given their form - but a horse who I really like here is Going Wrong - for last years renewal's winning trainer Ferdy Murphy.
The horse was fantastic last time out, when lowering the colours of strong favourite Realt Mor - and just like last years winner Divers, Ferdy Murphy has put him away for this! He is a nice type and really should be in the thick of things for this shrewd stable.
Ferdy Murphy has booked the tenacious Davy Russel to take the ride.
Odds of 12/1 are a nice way value.
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