Pts System : 1pt = €/£ 10
13:30 DIAMOND JUBILEE NOVICES
Probably one of the tougher races to judge in recent years - and this years renewal looks no different. Soll, Teaforthree and plenty more show appeal but the two that interest me are Allee Garde and Alfie Spinner.
Alfie Spinner has looked a natural over the bigger obstacles and has won over 3 miles and ran a blinder in behind the highly thought of Invictus last time out and - if he stays on he could well have a good few of these for ability and jumping.Nick Williams books Sam Waley Cohen who finished second in this race last year and this year could go one better.
1 Pt each way
I went for two in this race as I cannot seperate them and Allee Garde may prove me right he has done nothing wrong thus far - finishing thirs last time out over unsuitable ground - so if running up to his decent Albert Bartlett run last year he may just run like his market support has suggested. It is also interesting that Paddy Mullins has gone for him over Soll.
1 Pt win
14:05 NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES (NAP)
Every
year, every punter scans through the card for a "good thing" at a
backable price. This can come from word of mouth, a previous good run or
just a name, but I honestly believe I have found one in Simonsig.A lot of the bankers at this years festival seem bomb proof and I just think Simonsig is too - especially with the news of Boston Bob going for the Albert Bartlett instead. My confidences comes from his form - a valiant second behind Phillip Hobbs "best ever horse" Fingal bay and then last time out winning with his head in his chest. The fact that Barry Geraghty has final say and went for this race speaks volumes - he clearly believes he will stay.
Also all you hear from every preview synopsis is that Barry Geraghty is tremendously confident of Simonsig's chances - like he was with Bobs Worth last year and with the stable and Barry Geraghty's form you just have to side with him.
Of the challengers I really like Monksland and Mount Belbulben who are very talented and worth an each way punt - but my confidence and my money sits with Simonsig.
For Those each way backers Benefficient may represent the most value, given his brilliant win in the Irish deloitte and the manner of that victory was no fluke, 20/1 is a big price.
3 Pt Win: Simonsig
.5 Each Way: Benefficient
14:40 RSA CHASE (N.B)
Another day at Cheltenham and another "sure thing" in Grand Crus, and there can be no doubt that Grand Crus is a superb animal and will make the step up into being a top choice for the Gold Cup - however I just think he may meet his match today in Bobs Worth.
Grand Crus hammered Bobs Worth at Ascot at Christmas, and there is no doubt that Bobs Worth has an awful lot to prove , but this blog is all about trying to find the best value - Grand Crus just is not value in my opinion. Bobs worth is repoted to be flying at home and loves Cheltenham after winning at the festival last year and two times after, if he can get one or two jumping flaws out of his game he should be alright for this and a test of stamina will suit.
Barry Geraghty seems confident and with their championship already off to a winning start he may be the one to stay with.
Selection: Bobs Worth 2 Pt win 4/1
15:20 QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
The Irish have got off to a torrid start at Cheltenham, having been seriously burned by Hurricane Fly yesterday but Sizing Europe may just remedy that today - as in all probability he is one step ahead of his rivals today.
Sizing Europe really is a horse to be confident in - he bowled along beautifully in his last run to beat Big Zeb on ground that was'nt ideal for both but really it is between these two and Sizing Europe has him held as he should all the english contenders.
Somersby is just short of being a top horse and despite the fact that Finians Rainbow is classy he did not stay last year - so why would he stay this year?
Andrew Lynch is a top jockey and the De Bromhaed stable seems in good nick.
4 pts win Sizing Europe 10/11
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