And the World Cup of jumps racing returns...




Every year the anticipation to this fantastic week of racing mirrors that to the weeks before Christmas and this year has been the very same. The blog has been quiet of late - but I had to brush the cobwebs off for this week and having studied the form from every angle heres hoping to a profitable week.

Point system

1 pt (e.g 10 euro) = minimum bet
5pt (e.g 50 euro) = maximum bet (confidence)

Race by Race tips on Twitter - @dermonolan91

  

Supreme Novices Hurdle 13.30

Un Atout could be a star

This could well turn out to be the best race of the whole festival, you could only have been blown away by My Tent or Yours last run at Newbury - but favourites do not do well traditionally in this race (no favourite has won since 2004 when Brave Inca won, Dunguib and Cue Card example of favourites who flopped) and Nicky Hendeson has not won this race since 1992 - and I just cannot side with a horse who in my opinion is not good value - even with the champ McCoy on board.

So in my opinion your looking for horses who have done nothing wrong and yet are of a nice value and no horse fits this criteria better than the Willie Mullins trained Un Atout. Davy Russell is particularly sweet on his chances and whilst you could argue he hasn't beaten much in terms of class - he has done it with such ease you can only believe he will show his true colours coming up the famous hill. Also on the stats side is that the Irish have won 7 of the last 14 renewals of this race.

He has raced over this distance and the times of his races suggests he will only improve for a truer run race and he will definitely get this in the helter and skelter of a supreme novice race at Cheltenham.

Dodging Bullets is another to closely follow - last years triumph hurdle 3rd "has a big prize in him" according to Paul Nicholls and with the Nicholls yard flying he cannot be ignored at a tasty 9/1.

2 pts e/w Un Atout 7/1

1pt e/w Dodging Bullets 9/1

Odds of 7/1 are very generous

Arkle Chase 14.05:

time to sit back and enjoy simonsig

The Arkle of 2013 will be more of a watching brief for me with Simonsig looking like he only has to but his saddle on to collect here.

Watching him blitz a good field was awe inspiring last year and whilst he will have his biggest test in Overturn to face - I just cannot see Simonsig not prevailing by 5 or more lengths. At 4/6 however he just is not any value. 

Simonsig has taken to fences so easily and seems like he is a seasoned campaigner the way he struts over each fence - taking him on just seems facile at best. Overturn should nab second and I'd give an each way shout to the likeable Baile2y Green at 33/1. Bailey Green was only 3 lengths behind last time against Arvika Legionnaire (8/1) and is therefore overpriced in my eyes.

So strangely unless your backing massive money or small money on an e/w shout -  I'd advise to just avoid this race and enjoy watching a future superstar in Simonsig.

0.5 pts e/w Baily Green 33/1

14.40 JLT Speciality Chase

You will be hard pressed to find a harder race to predict anywhere in the world than this race - basically all 28 horses have the form in locker to show up here and win. This is the perfect Cheltenham race as you could literally like a name or have a "feeling" and you could well collect! 

I have broken this down to what I think are the two most likely winners of this great renewal.

Monkerty Tunkerty could surprise here

 Monkerty Tunkerty 20/1: What a story this would be were Monkerty Tunkerty to win. Firstly he is Jessica Westwoods only horse in training -  also to remember is nobody in racing deserves a big race victory more than Will Kennedy, having lost the ride on his best horse "Time For Rupert" and generally struggling to get horses on a weekly basis - but he is a classy jockey who deserves his big win..

The way he stayed on last time to win in a good contest suggests this race is well within his radar - and with conditions not an issue - this tough and likeable stayer could well surprise here at least for a place with a very nice low weight on his back.

Merry King 15/2 : Richie McLernon had his biggest success in this race last year with Alfie Sherrin and Merry King looks to have a similar profile and therefore a very similar chance in my eyes. Richie is a very capable jockey and was a whisker from the grand national last year so his booking is a major positive also.

He went down all guns blazing last time out when losing by only a nose to the talented Cannington Brook and with a short break to freshen him up he really should be there or thereabouts.

1 e/w Monkerty Tunkerty 20/1
1 e/w Merry King 15/2

Big Race of the Day 15.20 Champion Hurdle:

Hurricane Fly jumping the last on course to victory

The Champion Hurdle is always my favourite race of the festival.The speed and the class a horse must possess to win this race is so high that there rarely is a lucky winner of this fantastic race.

Whilst this years renewal does seem rather slack It is still a compelling race to take apart - and with the ground coming up on the soft side of good it definitely points me towards Hurricane Fly. He has been so impressive this year and has improved for every run - the old spark appears to be back.

He just wasn't 100% last year and showed this by coming off the bridle so early in the race - It really was just too bad to be true and I really am confident he will beat this field at ease. The word "soft" appearing on the going is what has really enthused me, he seems to like soft of late and the main positive is that the others in the most part do not - with Rock on Ruby,Binocular and Zarkander all missing engagements this year due to the soft ground. Countrywide Flame has had a good year on the whole and has to be taken at 14/1 as a back up.

The only fear is the stats though - If Hurricane Fly or Binocular win they would join a small list of horses to win this race at 9 years old - only one 9 year old in the last 20 years has won this race - Rooster Booster in 2003.

5 pts win Hurricane Fly 9/4

1 pt e/w Countrywide Flame 14/1

16.00 County Handicap Chase

2 pt win Arabella boy

16.40 Mares hurdle

0.5 pts e/w Alasi 25/1

17.15 Novices Chase

Shangani 13/2 3 pts win

Howards Legacy 20/1 1 pt e/w

Cheltenham Points wagered: 0 Pts 

 Points won =0 Pts

Loss = 0 pts