The last day is here...

The coveted Gold Cup

                                                   

Day three followed suit for what has ultimately been a weird Cheltenham - so many high priced winners again. So I've decided to throw the gauntlet at day 4 and have a go.

My Nap of the whole festival runs today and basically I'm praying to turn over a negative point balance today.


Point system

1 pt (e.g 10 euro) = minimum bet
5pt (e.g 50 euro) = maximum bet (confidence)

Race by Race tips on Twitter - @dermonolan91

Day Three

  

                                       Triumph Hurdle 1.30 (Nap of the whole festival)

Our Conor (Nap) has the class to win this

This really has been the race I've been waiting for all festival - and it looks to be a cracking renewal. Rolling Star is a worthy foe, but I just feel Our Conor will prevail here and recuperate some of the losses made over the last two days.

He received a massive boost in form with Flaxen Flare winning the Coral Cup, as Our Conor was a whole 25 lengths clear from him last time out. The ground has dried somewhat and all his form is on soft or heavy ground.   but connections have had no choice but to run him on heavy ground in Ireland and Bryan Cooper has been quoted in saying that Our Conor should improve for the better ground! It all points to a big run.

All in all he looks the one to beat in my eyes and I will be backing him all the way.

Those out there looking for an each way option  I would sway towards Hidden Justice - a tough and likeable sort who will be well tuned up for this.

• 4 pts win Our Conor 3/1
• 1 pt e/w Hidden Justice 14/1

County Hurdle 14.05:

This race should be known as the "bookies race" with last years winner 50/1 - but I feel I may have the found the key to this race with two horses that may have massive improvement in them on the day and will run off very decent marks.

Its a Gimme (left) should place

Its A Gimme: This horse could be anything. He ran a blinder when pushing the talented Raya Star all the way in a handicap at Ascot and Raya Star has since gone on to push Darlan all the way and Raya Star was thought of highly enough to take on Oscar Whiskey in a stayers race thereafter. His run last time can be discounted as the ground was too heavy and with the stable having polished Holywell to win yesterday at 25/1 he may be one to have a                                                                nibble at.

Hisabaat could pop up here

Hisaabaat: This horse has been picked purely on Cheltenham form. He ran a blinder last year to finish second behind Countrywide Flame in the triumph hurdle on similar ground and a reproduction of that form will see him firmly in the picture.He has had a bad year, but in his defence he hates heavy ground and always has (only won once on heavy ground - won on good to soft and better all others) and odds of 20/1 just seem to high. Also interesting is that Dermot Weld books the exciting Micheal Nolan.

• 1 pts e/w Its A Gimme 16/1
• 1 pts e/w Hisabaat 20/1

• .5 rfc both selections

Albert Bartlett Novices Chase 14.40

African gold (light blue) could be a star

Another exciting race on the cards here with many an exciting novice here - It may just pay to side with the inform Twiston-Davies team and opt for African Gold.


His form is rock solid having only been beaten once and has won on ground similar to what he will be running on tomorrow.He would appreciate more rain, but good to soft ground should not deter this tough type from winning. He has the potential to be a superstar and could well emulate the New One in winning and winning well!!

Any horse that comes to Cheltenham in top form is worth a look and African Gold is no different. The stable seems very confident in him and odds of 6.1 seem very generous.

• 2 point win African Gold 6/1

Big Race of the Day 15.20 Gold Cup

The Gold Cup 2013 really looks to be a race to whet the appetite. This years renewal is all the more 

interesting as for the first time in a long time we don't have an all conquering favourite. 

Bobs Worth should have enough
I feel this race boils down to the top four in the market. Long Run is all about staying and is great each way value, but I feel the jockeys ability (or lack of) is a massive issue and with the ground hardening by the day his jumping may be found out again. Silvianico Conti has obvious claims, but I'm deterred by the Paul Nicholls runners flopping all week.

So it boils down to Sir de Champs and Bobs Worth and I've gone for the latter. He was just so impressive last time out in the Hennessy and couple that with his last two wins here at Cheltenham in the last two festivals and he is just too solid a proposition to avoid. 

The only issue is the setback that meant he comes here without a prep run, but Nicky Henderson can ready them from a break and I just believe he will do so again.

• 3pts win Bobs Worth 11/4 

16.00 Foxhunters Chase

• 3 pt win Salsify 11/4 

16.40 Martin Pipe Handicap hurdle

• 1pts e/w Toner Doudairies 9/1
• 1pts e/w Bridgets Pet 20/1

17.15 Grand Annual Handicap Chase

• 1 pts e/w Kid Cassidy 10/1 
• 1 pts e/w Drumshambo 25/1 

Cheltenham Points wagered: 70 Pts 

Points won =39.5 Pts


Profit/Loss = 30.50 loss